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Bruce Simpson
Site Admin
Joined: 02 Jan 2005
Posts: 6061
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 Posted: Thu Sep 11, 2008 9:49 am Post subject: Prediction or gambling? (11 Sep 2008) |
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This column is archived at: http://aardvark.co.nz/daily/2008/0911.shtml
What's your take on iPredict?
A good idea or just another chance for problem gamblers to lay a bet or two?
Given that those with inside information could make a very healthy return on their "informed" predictions, do you think that government might decide to step in and regulate, restrict, license, or even ban this site?
Is it gambling -- or could it be claimed that one's returns are more based on skill and knowledge than luck?
Don't you wish you'd thought of it first? |
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bikerider
Joined: 20 Feb 2007
Posts: 13
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| Posted: Thu Sep 11, 2008 10:37 am Post subject: Re: Prediction or gambling? (11 Sep 2008) |
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| Bruce Simpson wrote: |
What's your take on iPredict?
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Hardly a new thing, intrade.com / Iowa Electronic Markets do the same thing.
| Bruce Simpson wrote: |
A good idea or just another chance for problem gamblers to lay a bet or two?
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It's a good idea, though I'd prefer it was something more meaningful like the price of lamb / milk fat, that producers in this country could hedge with.
| Bruce Simpson wrote: |
Given that those with inside information could make a very healthy return on their "informed" predictions, do you think that government might decide to step in and regulate, restrict, license, or even ban this site?
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If anything I think it makes things more open, in that if the prices fluctuate alot of questions get asked, vs things being kept quiet.
| Bruce Simpson wrote: |
Is it gambling -- or could it be claimed that one's returns are more based on skill and knowledge than luck?
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No more than any other futures market 
| Bruce Simpson wrote: |
Don't you wish you'd thought of it first? |
Not really, the market is not that big & the big players will kill you if you get any real traction as they have the liquidity. |
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thrashcardiom
Joined: 24 Jan 2005
Posts: 525
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| Posted: Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Aren't all these people prediction/futures market sites just offshoots of ideas from John Brunner's "The Shockwave Rider"? |
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